Latest CNBC/Change Research Poll Shows Race Tightening in Pennsylvania and North Carolina with Less Than Two Weeks to Election
ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J., October 21, 2020 – Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden is maintaining his lead in six key battleground states as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point since late August, according to the latest CNBC and Change Research joint “States of Play” poll.
The poll, conducted October 16-October 19, shows Biden leading (50% vs. 46%) across all six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), a position he has maintained since mid-summer. The race, however, is beginning to change in some states. Biden led Trump by 8 points in Pennsylvania back in July, but the President has since closed the gap to just 2 points (Biden 49% vs. Trump 47%). In North Carolina, Trump was leading Biden by 1 point in mid-August, but Biden has since maintained a narrow but steady lead of 3 points since September (Biden 50% vs. Trump 47%). The gap in Michigan is widening with Biden now leading the President (51% vs. 44%), a state Trump led by 8 points back in March.
Additionally, Trump’s job approval among likely battleground voters hit its lowest since the “States of Play” poll release in late August (46% approve, 54% disapprove) while beliefs on how he has handled the economy has been steady the last two weeks (49% approve, 51% disapprove). When asked who would do a better job recovering from a recession, 51% of likely battleground voters say Biden/Democrats and 49% say Trump/Republicans.
CNBC and Change Research polled more than 2,900 likely general election voters from the six previously noted battleground states, as well as over 2,700 likely general election voters nationally, to determine economic sentiment amongst voters. Additional key findings from the most recent CNBC/Change Research “States of Play” poll include:
CNBC Washington D.C. Correspondent Eamon Javers and Reporter Kayla Tausche will reveal the results of the CNBC/Change Research “States of Play Poll” today, Wednesday, October 21 throughout CNBC’s Business Day programming with additional coverage on-air tomorrow, Thursday, October 22.
For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-16/.
Between October 16-19, 2020, Change Research surveyed 2,711 likely general election voters nationally and 2,949 likely general election voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error as traditionally calculated among the national sample is ±1.88% and among the battleground sample is ±1.8%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Its Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. In the national survey and the survey of battleground states, post-stratification was done on gender, age, region, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote.
For additional methodological information, visit www.changeresearch.com/methodology.
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